Share:


Determining concessionary items for “availability payment only” PPP projects: a holistic framework integrating value-for-money and social values

    Yubo Guo Affiliation
    ; Chuan Chen Affiliation
    ; Xiaowei Luo Affiliation
    ; Igor Martek Affiliation

Abstract

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been widely applied in infrastructure development around the world. However, reasonable concessionary items are critical to compromise interest conflicts between government agencies and sponsors to ensure project success. A broad literature review centering on PPP transaction structuring revealed two significant research gaps: (1) a lack of attention to the ‘availability payment only’ (APO) funding method and (2) negligence of the public side’s perspective in determining concessionary items. The research objective was to develop a methodological framework for determining concessionary items in APO PPP projects while considering the interests of the public side. This study proposed a value-for-money (VFM) and social values integrated framework which accommodates discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, bargaining game modeling, and multi-objectives decision-making (MODM). This framework enables a decision-making process based on both an indifferent feasible interval of concessionary items under a discount rate agreed upon by both parties and an optimal set of concessionary items. Additionally, results of a sensitivity analysis indicated that project construction profit can significantly affect feasible and optimal concession items, and the optimal concession period is less sensitive to changes in risk allocation. The application of proposed model indicated that this paper successfully provides a methodology for determining a feasible interval and an optimal concession items group tailored to APO PPP projects. This study paves the way towards a platform for the public and private partners to jointly and quickly come up with sound PPP concessional items in light of the win-win principle, particularly under the APO funding mechanism.

Keyword : public–private partnerships, value allocation, optimal concessionary items determination, VFM and social value integration, availability payment only (APO), multi-objectives decision-making (MODM), bargaining game model

How to Cite
Guo, Y., Chen, C., Luo, X., & Martek, I. (2024). Determining concessionary items for “availability payment only” PPP projects: a holistic framework integrating value-for-money and social values. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 30(2), 149–167. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2024.20841
Published in Issue
Feb 13, 2024
Abstract Views
539
PDF Downloads
401
SM Downloads
132
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Adhikari, S. R. (2016). Methods of measuring externalities. In S. R. Adhikari (Ed.), Economics of urban externalities: Analysis of squatter settlements in Kathmandu and Quito (pp. 5–13). Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0545-9_2

Agarchand, N., & Laishram, B. (2017). Sustainable infrastructure development challenges through PPP procurement process. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 10(3), 642–662. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-10-2016-0078

Alghamdi, F., Tatari, O., & Alghamdi, L. (2022). A socio-economic multi-objective optimization approach toward enhancing public–private partnerships’ concession agreements in infrastructure development. Journal of Strategic Contracting Negotiation, 6(1), 59–84. https://doi.org/10.1177/20555636221086224

Bakatjan, S., Arikan, M., & Tiong, R. L. (2003). Optimal capital structure model for BOT power projects in Turkey. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(1), 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:1(89)

Bao, H., Peng, Y., Ablanedo-Rosas, J. H., & Gao, H. (2015). An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project. International Journal of Project Management, 33(5), 1151–1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.12.004

Bao, F., Martek, I., Chen, C., Chan, A. P., & Yu, Y. (2018). Lifecycle performance measurement of public-private partnerships: a case study in China’s water sector. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(6), 516–531. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.6048

Bayat, M., Khanzadi, M., & Nasirzadeh, F. (2019). Determining optimal capital structure and concession period length in BOT scheme using trilateral bargaining game model. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(1), Article 04018036. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000456

Bayat, M., Khanzadi, M., & Nasirzadeh, F. (2020). Bargaining game model to determine concessionary items in build-operate-transfer contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering Management, 146(2), Article 04019109. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001774

Boardman, A. E., & Vining, A. R. (2012). The political economy of public-private partnerships and analysis of their social value. Annals of Public Cooperative Economics, 83(2), 117–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8292.2012.00457.x

Boardman, A., & Hellowell, M. (2017). A comparative analysis and evaluation of specialist PPP units’ methodologies for conducting value for money appraisals. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research Practice, 19(3), 191–206. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2016.1190083

Brown, M. (2017). Cobb–Douglas functions. In The New Palgrave dictionary of economics (pp. 1–4). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_480-2

Burger, P., & Hawkesworth, I. (2011). How to attain value for money: comparing PPP and traditional infrastructure public procurement. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 11(1), 91–146. https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-11-5kg9zc0pvq6j

Caldwell, N. D., Roehrich, J. K., & George, G. (2017). Social value creation and relational coordination in public-private collaborations. Journal of Management Studies, 54(6), 906–928. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12268

Carbonara, N., Costantino, N., & Pellegrino, R. (2014). Concession period for PPPs: A win–win model for a fair risk sharing. International Journal of Project Management, 32(7), 1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.01.007

China Public Private Partnerships Center. (2022). Monthly report of national PPPs projects development in China. https://www.cpppc.org/jb/1002596.jhtml

Cui, C., Wang, J., Liu, Y., & Coffey, V. (2019). Relationships among value-for-money drivers of public–private partnership infrastructure projects. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(2), Article 04019007. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000479

Farquharson, E., & Yescombe, E. (2011). How to engage with the private sector in public-private partnerships in emerging markets. World Bank Publications. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-7863-2

Feng, K., Wang, S., Li, N., Wu, C., & Xiong, W. (2018). Balancing public and private interests through optimization of concession agreement design for user-pay PPP projects. Journal of Civil Engineering Management, 24(2), 116–129. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2018.455

Feng, Z., Song, J., Yang, X., & Guo, R. (2023). Contractual flexibility, firm effort, and subsidy design: A comparison of PPP project contracts. European Journal of Operational Research, 307(1), 484–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.09.018

Glendinning, R. (1988). The concept of value for money. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 1(1), 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb002926

Guo, Y., Su, Y., Chen, C., & Martek, I. (2023). Inclusion of “managing flexibility” valuations in the pricing of PPP projects: a multi-objective decision-making method. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2022-0672

HM Treasury. (2006). Value for money assessment guidance.

Islam, M. M., & Mohamed, S. (2009). Bid-winning potential optimization for concession schemes with imprecise investment parameters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(8), 690–700. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000032

Ivanova, E., & Masarova, J. (2013). Importance of road infrastructure in the economic development and competitiveness. Economics and Management, 18(2), 263–274. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.18.2.4253

Iyer, K., & Sagheer, M. (2012). Optimization of bid-winning potential and capital structure for build-operate-transfer road projects in India. Journal of Management in Engineering, 28(2), 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000071

Jin, H., & Liu, C. (2023). Incorporating social benefits in concession price negotiation for public–private partnership contracts. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 15(1), 04522040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000582

Jin, H., Liu, S., Liu, C., & Udawatta, N. (2019). Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 26(10), 2347–2363. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-05-2018-0201

Jin, H., Liu, S., Li, J., & Liu, C. (2020a). A game-theoretic approach to developing a concession renegotiation framework for user-pays PPPs. International Journal of Construction Management, 20(6), 642–652. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1738003

Jin, H., Liu, S., Li, J., & Liu, C. (2020b). Imperfect information bargaining model for determining concession period of PPPs under revenue uncertainty. Journal of Legal Affairs Dispute Resolution in Engineering Construction, 12(2), 04520012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000382

Jin, H., Liu, S., Sun, J., & Liu, C. (2021). Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements. European Journal of Operational Research, 291(2), 512–524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.013

Khanzadi, M., Nasirzadeh, F., & Alipour, M. (2012). Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects. Automation in Construction, 22, 368–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2011.09.015

Kivleniece, I., & Quelin, B. V. (2012). Creating and capturing value in public-private ties: A private actor’s perspective. Academy of Management Review, 37(2), 272–299. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2011.0004

Kweun, J. Y., Wheeler, P. K., & Gifford, J. L. (2018). Evaluating highway public-private partnerships: Evidence from US value for money studies. Transport Policy, 62, 12–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.009

Laursen, M., & Svejvig, P. (2016). Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice. International Journal of Project Management, 34(4), 736–747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.06.007

Li, J., Song, F., & Zhao, C. (2018). Financial compensation strategy of PPP project based on game theory and intelligent optimization. Journal of Intelligent Fuzzy Systems, 35(3), 2697–2702. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-169621

Li, Y., Wang, X., & Wang, Y. (2017). Using bargaining game theory for risk allocation of public-private partnership projects: Insights from different alternating offer sequences of participants. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(3), Article 04016102. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001249

Liou, F.-m., Yang, C.-h., Chen, B., & Chen, W. (2011). Identifying the Pareto-front approximation for negotiations of BOT contracts with a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Construction Management Economics, 29(5), 535–548. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2011.564196

Liu, M., Zhang, X., Zhang, M., Feng, Y., Liu, Y., Wen, J., & Liu, L. (2021). Influencing factors of carbon emissions in transportation industry based on CD function and LMDI decomposition model: China as an example. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 90, Article 106623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106623

Liu, J., Guo, Y., Martek, I., Chen, C., & Tian, J. (2022). A phase-oriented evaluation framework for China’s PPP projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(9), 3737–3753. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2021-0238

Lv, J., Zhang, Y.-y., & Zhou, W. (2020). Alternative model to determine the optimal government subsidies in construction stage of PPP rail transit projects under dynamic uncertainties. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2020, Article 3928463. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3928463

Martins, J., Marques, R. C., & Cruz, C. O. (2014). Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports. Journal of Air Transport Management, 39, 72–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.04.003

Meduri Surya, S., & Annamalai Thillai, R. (2013). Unit costs of public and PPP road projects: Evidence from India. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(1), 35–43. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000546

Ministry of Finance. (2014a). Notice on issues related to the promotion and application of public-private partnerships model. http://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201409/t20140924_1143760.html

Ministry of Finance. (2014b). Notice on printing and distributing the guidelines (trial) for public-private partnerships. http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2015/content_2835273.htm

Ministry of Finance. (2015a). Notice on issuing the guidelines for the demonstration of financial affordability of PPP projects. https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2015/content_2897169.htm

Ministry of Finance. (2015b). Notice on publishing value-for-money guides (trial) of PPP. http://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/201512/t20151228_1634669.htm

Ministry of Finance. (2016). Notice on fiscal management interim measures of public-private partnership projects. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/21/content_5122668.htm

Mochon, P., Mochon, A., & Saez, Y. (2022). Combinatorial versus sequential auctions to allocate PPP highway projects. Transport Policy, 117, 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.12.015

Moore, M. A., Boardman, A. E., & Vining, A. R. (2017). Analyzing risk in PPP provision of utility services: A social welfare perspective. Utilities Policy, 48, 210–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2017.08.008

Morris, P. W. (2013). Reconstructing project management. John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118536698

Nash Jr, J. F. (1950). The bargaining problem. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 18(2), 155–162. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907266

National People’s Congress. (2017). Law of the People’s Republic of China on bid invitation and bidding. http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c30834/201801/01c573f6c46340edb0bc0cc0ca97d6a5.shtml

Ng, S. T., Xie, J., Skitmore, M., & Cheung, Y. K. (2007). A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public–private partnership schemes. Automation in Construction, 17(1), 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010

Oerlemans, L. A. G., Chan, K.-Y., & Volschenk, J. (2016). Willingness to pay for green electricity: A review of the contingent valuation literature and its sources of error. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 66, 875–885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.08.054

Osborne, M. J., & Rubinstein, A. (1994). A course in game theory. MIT Press.

Osei-Kyei, R., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015). Review of studies on the critical success factors for public–private partnership (PPP) projects from 1990 to 2013. International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1335–1346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.02.008

Park, J. H. (2014). Transport PPP decisions in Korea: value for money assessment and risk quantification [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Southampton, London.

Repolho, H. M., Antunes, A. P., & Church, R. L. (2016). PPP motorway ventures–an optimization model to locate interchanges with social welfare and private profit objectives. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 12(9), 832–852. https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2016.1185478

Shang, L., & Abdel Aziz, A. M. (2020). Stackelberg game theory-based optimization model for design of payment mechanism in performance-based PPPs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(4), Article 04020029. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001806

Sharafi, A., Amalnick, M. S., & Taleizadeh, A. A. (2022). Optimal readjustment of contract variables and the financial outcome of PPP projects in the operation period. Construction Management Economics, 40(2), 87–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2021.2007536

Sharma, D., & Cui, Q. (2012). Design of concession and annual payments for availability payment public private partnership (PPP) projects. Paper presented at the Construction Research Congress 2012: Construction Challenges in a Flat World. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.230

Shen, L., Bao, H., Wu, Y., & Lu, W. (2007). Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(5), 385–392. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:5(385)

Siemiatycki, M., & Farooqi, N. (2012). Value for money and risk in public–private partnerships: Evaluating the evidence. Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(3), 286–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2012.715525

Sun, H., Jia, S., & Wang, Y. (2019). Optimal equity ratio of BOT highway project under government guarantee and revenue sharing. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 15(1), 114–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2018.1486340

Sun, Y., & Zhang, L. (2015). Balancing public and private stakeholder interests in BOT concessions: Minimum revenue guarantee and royalty scheme applied to a water treatment project in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(2), Article 04014070. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000930

Swanson, R., & Sakhrani, V. (2020). Appropriating the value of flexibility in PPP megaproject design. Journal of Management in Engineering, 36(5), Article 05020010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000770

Ullah, F., Ayub, B., Siddiqui, S. Q., & Thaheem, M. J. (2016). A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 21(3), 269–300. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-02-2016-0011

Viegas, J. M. (2010). Questioning the need for full amortization in PPP contracts for transport Infrastructure. Research in Transportation Economics, 30(1), 139–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2010.10.014

Wang, H., Xiong, W., Wu, G., & Zhu, D. (2018). Public–private partnership in Public Administration discipline: a literature review. Public Management Review, 20(2), 293–316. https://doi.org/10.1080/14719037.2017.1313445

Wang, D.-Y., Wang, X., & Ding, R.-X. (2022). Welfare maximization with the least subsidy: Pricing model for surface water loop heat pump PPP projects considering occupancy rate growth and coefficient of performance. Renewable Energy, 194, 1131–1141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.140

Xiong, W., Wang, H., Casady, C. B., & Han, Y. (2022). The impact of renegotiations on public values in public–private partnerships: a delphi survey in China. Journal of Management in Engineering, 38(5), Article 04022040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0001075

Xu, J.-W., Jiang, L., & Moon, S. (2017). Determination of the optimal concession period for BOT contract projects based on a discrete stochastic process model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(4), Article 04016119. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001231

Yu, C., & Lam, K. C. (2013). A decision support system for the determination of concession period length in transportation project under BOT contract. Automation in Construction, 31, 114–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.11.012

Yuan, J., Ji, W., Guo, J., & Skibniewski, M. J. (2019). Simulation-based dynamic adjustments of prices and subsidies for transportation PPP projects based on stakeholders’ satisfaction. Transportation, 46, 2309–2345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9940-1

Yuan, J., Zhang, L., Tan, Y., & Skibniewski, M. J. (2020). Evaluating the regional social sustainability contribution of public-private partnerships in China: The development of an indicator system. Sustainable Development, 28(1), 259–278. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2001

Zhang, X. (2009). Win–win concession period determination methodology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(6), 550–558. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000012

Zhao, X., Bai, Y., & Ding, L. (2021). Incentives for personal carbon account: An evolutionary game analysis on public-private-partnership reconstruction. Journal of Cleaner Production, 282, Article 125358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125358