Identification of the shadow economy determinants for the Eurozone member states: application of the MIMIC model
Abstract
This article is aimed at identification of the shadow economy’s causal factors and indicators in 19 Eurozone member states over the period from 2005 to 2016. Application of the MIMIC model has allowed to identify the following causal factors of the shadow economy in the Eurozone: employment rate, gender wage gap and income inequalities (expressed as the GINI index). All of these causal factors of the shadow economy in the Eurozone are attributable to the group of labour market determinants, which proposes that a reasonably arranged labour market mechanism can substantially diminish the probability of the shadow economy emergence. On the other hand, it has been found that the level of the shadow economy determines a positive/negative degree of the public trust in the EU authorities. The novelty of the research lies in the disclosure of the main causal factors of the shadow economy in the geographical area that covers different countries with a single currency. The findings of this research may contribute to the development of the shadow economy reduction strategies in 19 Eurozone member states.
Keyword : shadow economy, the MIMIC model, Eurozone member states, causal factors, indicators, labour market determinants
How to Cite
Remeikienė, R., Gasparėnienė, L., Chadyšas, V., & Cepel, M. (2018). Identification of the shadow economy determinants for the Eurozone member states: application of the MIMIC model. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 19(6), 777-796. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.6276
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Buehn, A., & Schneider, F. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates. International Tax and Public Finance, 19, 139-171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-011-9187-7
Chong, A., & Gradstein, M. (2004). Inequality, institutions and informality. Inter-American Development Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1818716
Dey, C., Russell, S., & Thomson, I. (2011). Exploring the potential of shadow accounts in problematizing institutional conduct. In A. Ball, & A. S. Osbourne (Eds.), Social accounting and public management: accountability for the common good (Chapter 12). London: Routledge.
Deininger, K., Jin, S., & Nagarajan, H. (2013). Wage discrimination in India’s informal labor markets: exploring the impact of caste and gender. Review of Development Economics, 17(1), 130-147. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12020
Dell’Anno, R. (2003). Estimating the shadow economy in Italy: a structural equation approach. University of Aarhus. Retrieved from https://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/03/wp03_07.pdf
Dell’Anno, R., Davidescu, A. A., & Balele, N. P. (2018). Estimating shadow economy in Tanzania: an analysis with the MIMIC approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(1), 100-113. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-11-2016-0240
Elgin, C., & Oztunali, O. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: model based estimates. Bogazici University. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/bouwpaper/2012_2f05.htm
Elgin, C., & Schneider, F. (2013). Shadow economies in OECD countries: DGE vs MIMIC approaches. Bogazici University. Retrieved from https://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/content/wp/EC2013_13.pdf
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Fethi, M. D., Fethi, S., & Katircioglu, S. T. (2006). Estimating the size of the Cypriot underground economy: a comparison with European experience. International Journal of Manpower, 27(6), 515-534. https://doi.org/10.1108/01437720610690464
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Gasparėnienė, L., Remeikienė, R., & Schneider, F. G. (2017). Concept, motives and channels of digital shadow economy: consumers’ attitude. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 18(2), 273-287.
Georgiou, G. M. (2007). Measuring the size of the informal economy: a critical review. Central Bank of Cyprus. Retrieved from https://www.centralbank.gov.cy/media/pdf/npwpe_no1_052007___.pdf
Hassan, M., & Schneider, F. (2016a). Size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries worldwide: updated and new measures from 1999 to 2013. IZA Institute of Labour Economics. Retrieved from https://ftp.iza.org/dp10281.pdf
Hassan, M., & Schneider, F. (2016b). Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: a MIMIC model and currency demand approach. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/%5Cmembers%5CSchneider%5Cfiles%5Cpublications%5C2016%5CModellingtheESE_June2016.pdf
Hatipoglu, O., & Ozbek, G. (2011). On the political economy of the informal sector and income redistribution. European Journal of Law and Economics, 32(1), 69-87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-010-9179-6
Helberger, C., & Knepel, H. (1988). How big is the shadow economy? A re-analysis of the unobserved variable approach of B. S. Frey and H. Weck Hannemann. European Economic Review, 32(4), 965-976. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(88)90055-4
Herwartz, H., Tafenau, E., & Schneider, F. (2013). One share fits all? Regional variations in the extent of the shadow economy in Europe. Regional Studies, 49(9), 1575-1587. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.848034
Yahmed, S. B. (2013). Gender wage gaps in formal and informal jobs, evidence from Brazil. Editorial Express. Retrieved from https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=CSAE2014&paper_id=537
Juškienė, G. (2015). Overview of the methods used to ensure exhaustiveness the national accounts of Lithuania. Lithuanian Department of Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/std/na/2069700.pdf
Kaufmann, D., & Kaliberda, A. (1996). Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post socialist economies: a framework of analyses and evidence (Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691). Washington, DC: World Bank.
Krstič, G., & Sanfey, P. (2010). Earnings inequality and the informal economy: evidence from Serbia. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Retrieved from https://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/workingpapers/wp0114.pdf
Lacko, M. (1998). The hidden economies of visegrad countries in international comparison: a house-hold electricity approach. In L. Halpern, & C. Wyplosz (Eds.), Hungary: towards a market economy (Chapter 6). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lichard, T., Hanousek, J., & Filer, R. K. (2014). Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy (No. 10483). CEPR Discussion Paper.
Medina, L., & Schneider, F. (2017). Shadow economies around the world: new results for 158 countries over 1991-2015. Johannes Kepler University Linz. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2017/JointPaper_LeandroMedina_158countries.pdf
Nchor, D., & Adamec, V. (2015). Unofficial economy estimation by the MIMIC model: the case of Kenya, Namibia, Ghana and Nigeria. ACTA. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563062043
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. (2002). Measuring the non-observed economy. OECD Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/std/na/1963116.pdf
Pocius, A. (2015). Šešėlinės ekonomikos ir neoficialaus užimtumo būklės bei tendencijų įvertinimas Lietuvoje [Evaluation of the shadow economy and informal employment trends in Lithuania]. Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 54(1), 18-32.
Putniņš, T. J., & Sauka, A. (2014). Shadow economy index for the Baltic countries 2009-2013. SSE Riga. Retrieved from https://www.sseriga.edu/en/centres/csb/shadow-economy-index-for-baltics/
Putninš, T. J., & Sauka, A. (2015). Measuring the shadow economy using company managers. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43, 471-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.04.001
Remeikienė, R., Gasparėnienė, L., & Schneider, F. G. (2018). The definition of digital shadow economy. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 696-717. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1266530
Rokicka, M., & Ruzik, A. (2010). The gender pay gap in informal employment in Poland. CERGEEI and the Global Development Network. Retrieved from https://www.cerge.cuni.cz/pdf/gdn/rrc/RRCIX_68_paper_01.pdf
Schneider, F. (2007). Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: new estimates for 145 countries. Economics E-Journal. Retrieved from https://www.economicsejournal.org/economics/journalar-ticles/2007-9/version_1
Schneider, F. (2017). Implausible large differences in the sizes of the underground economies highly developed European countries? A comparison of different estimation. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6522. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2017/Es-tShadEc_OECDCountries.pdf
Schneider, F., & Enste, D. (2000). Shadow economies: size, causes, and consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 38, 77-114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77
Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2013). Estimating the size of the shadow economy: methods, problems and open questions. CESIFO. Retrieved from https://www.economics.jku.at/papers/2013/wp1320.pdf
Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2016). Estimating the size of the shadow economy: methods, problems and open questions. The Institute for the Study of Labor. Retrieved from https://ftp.iza.org/dp9820.pdf
Schneider, F., Raczkowski, K., & Mróz, B. (2015). Shadow economy and tax evasion in the EU. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 18(1), 34-51. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-09-2014-0027
Schneider, F., & Williams, C. (2016). The shadow economy. The Institute of Economics Affairs. Retrieved from https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IEA%20Shadow%20Economy%20web%20rev%207.6.13.pdf
Sookram, S., Watson, P. K., & Schneider, F. (2009). Characteristics of households in the informal sector of an emerging economy. Applied Economics, 41, 3545-3559. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701493733
Tansel, A. (2001). Wage earners, self-employed and gender in the informal sector in Turkey. The Economic Research Forum. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.263275
Trebicka, B. (2014). Mimic model: a tool to estimate the shadow economy. Mediterranean Center of Social and Educational Research. https://doi.org/10.5901/ajis.2014.v3n6p295
Tregidga, H. (2017). Speaking truth to power: analysing shadow reporting as a form of shadow accounting. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 30(3), 510-533. https://doi.org/10.1108/AAAJ-01-2015-1942
Wang, D. H., Lin, J., & Hu, T. H. (2006). A MIMIC approach to modelling the underground economy in Taiwan. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Application, 371(2), 536-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.03.060
Williams, C. C. (2009). Rationales for outsourcing domestic services to off-the-books workers. Journal of Economic Studies, 36(4), 343-354. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580910973565
Williams, C. C. (2010). Out of the shadows: explaining the undeclared economy in Baltic countries. Journal of Baltic Studies, 41(1), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/01629770903525282
Williams, C. C., Bejakovic, P., Mikulic, D., Franic, J., Kedir, A., & Horodnic, I. A. (2017). An evaluation of the scale of undeclared work in the European Union and its structural determinants: estimates using the Labour Input Method. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Williams, C. C., & Horodnic, I. A. (2016). Beyond the marginalization thesis: evaluating the participation of the formally employed in the shadow economy in the European Union. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(3), 400-417. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-06-2014-0105
Williams, C. C., & Nadin, S. (2012). Tackling entrepreneurship in the informal economy: evaluating the policy options. Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, 1(2), 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1108/20452101211261408
Williams, C. C., & Nadin, S. (2013). Harnessing the hidden enterprise culture. Supporting the formalization of off-the-books business start-ups. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 20(2), 434-447. https://doi.org/10.1108/14626001311326815
Williams, C. C., Round, J., & Rodgers, P. (2007). Beyond the formal/informal economy binary hierarchy. International Journal of Social Economics, 34(6), 402-414. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290710751812
Winkelried, D. (2005). Income distribution and the size of the informal sector. The Robinson Rojas Archive. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.777144
AT Kearney. (2013). The shadow economy in Europe. Financial Institutions. Retrieved from https://www.atkearney.com/financial-institutions/featured-article/-/asset_publisher/j8IucAqMqEhB/content/the-shadow-economy-in-europe-2013/10192
Bordignon, M., & Zanardii, A. (1997). Tax evasion in Italy. Giornale Degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, 56, 169-210.
Bose, N., Capasso, S., & Wurm, M. A. (2012). The impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies. Journal of Economic Studies, 32(6), 620-638. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581211274584
Breusch, T. (2005a). The Canadian underground economy: an examination of Giles and Tedds. Canadian Tax Journal, 53, 367–391.
Breusch, T. (2005b). Estimating the underground economy using MIMIC models. EconWPA. Retrieved from https://econwpa.wustl.edu/eps/em/papers/0507/0507003.pdf
Buehn, A., & Schneider, F. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates. International Tax and Public Finance, 19, 139-171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-011-9187-7
Chong, A., & Gradstein, M. (2004). Inequality, institutions and informality. Inter-American Development Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1818716
Dey, C., Russell, S., & Thomson, I. (2011). Exploring the potential of shadow accounts in problematizing institutional conduct. In A. Ball, & A. S. Osbourne (Eds.), Social accounting and public management: accountability for the common good (Chapter 12). London: Routledge.
Deininger, K., Jin, S., & Nagarajan, H. (2013). Wage discrimination in India’s informal labor markets: exploring the impact of caste and gender. Review of Development Economics, 17(1), 130-147. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12020
Dell’Anno, R. (2003). Estimating the shadow economy in Italy: a structural equation approach. University of Aarhus. Retrieved from https://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/03/wp03_07.pdf
Dell’Anno, R., Davidescu, A. A., & Balele, N. P. (2018). Estimating shadow economy in Tanzania: an analysis with the MIMIC approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(1), 100-113. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-11-2016-0240
Elgin, C., & Oztunali, O. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: model based estimates. Bogazici University. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/bouwpaper/2012_2f05.htm
Elgin, C., & Schneider, F. (2013). Shadow economies in OECD countries: DGE vs MIMIC approaches. Bogazici University. Retrieved from https://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/content/wp/EC2013_13.pdf
Elgin, C., & Schneider, F. (2016). Shadow economies in OECD countries: DGE vs MIMIC approaches. Bogazici Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 30(1), 51-75. https://doi.org/10.21773/boun.30.1.3
Fethi, M. D., Fethi, S., & Katircioglu, S. T. (2006). Estimating the size of the Cypriot underground economy: a comparison with European experience. International Journal of Manpower, 27(6), 515-534. https://doi.org/10.1108/01437720610690464
Gasparėnienė, L., & Remeikienė, R. (2016). The methodologies of shadow economy estimation in the world and in Lithuania: whether the criterions fixing digital shadow are included? Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, 753-760. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30277-5
Gasparėnienė, L., Remeikienė, R., & Schneider, F. G. (2017). Concept, motives and channels of digital shadow economy: consumers’ attitude. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 18(2), 273-287.
Georgiou, G. M. (2007). Measuring the size of the informal economy: a critical review. Central Bank of Cyprus. Retrieved from https://www.centralbank.gov.cy/media/pdf/npwpe_no1_052007___.pdf
Hassan, M., & Schneider, F. (2016a). Size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries worldwide: updated and new measures from 1999 to 2013. IZA Institute of Labour Economics. Retrieved from https://ftp.iza.org/dp10281.pdf
Hassan, M., & Schneider, F. (2016b). Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: a MIMIC model and currency demand approach. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/%5Cmembers%5CSchneider%5Cfiles%5Cpublications%5C2016%5CModellingtheESE_June2016.pdf
Hatipoglu, O., & Ozbek, G. (2011). On the political economy of the informal sector and income redistribution. European Journal of Law and Economics, 32(1), 69-87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-010-9179-6
Helberger, C., & Knepel, H. (1988). How big is the shadow economy? A re-analysis of the unobserved variable approach of B. S. Frey and H. Weck Hannemann. European Economic Review, 32(4), 965-976. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(88)90055-4
Herwartz, H., Tafenau, E., & Schneider, F. (2013). One share fits all? Regional variations in the extent of the shadow economy in Europe. Regional Studies, 49(9), 1575-1587. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.848034
Yahmed, S. B. (2013). Gender wage gaps in formal and informal jobs, evidence from Brazil. Editorial Express. Retrieved from https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=CSAE2014&paper_id=537
Juškienė, G. (2015). Overview of the methods used to ensure exhaustiveness the national accounts of Lithuania. Lithuanian Department of Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/std/na/2069700.pdf
Kaufmann, D., & Kaliberda, A. (1996). Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post socialist economies: a framework of analyses and evidence (Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691). Washington, DC: World Bank.
Krstič, G., & Sanfey, P. (2010). Earnings inequality and the informal economy: evidence from Serbia. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Retrieved from https://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/workingpapers/wp0114.pdf
Lacko, M. (1998). The hidden economies of visegrad countries in international comparison: a house-hold electricity approach. In L. Halpern, & C. Wyplosz (Eds.), Hungary: towards a market economy (Chapter 6). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lichard, T., Hanousek, J., & Filer, R. K. (2014). Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy (No. 10483). CEPR Discussion Paper.
Medina, L., & Schneider, F. (2017). Shadow economies around the world: new results for 158 countries over 1991-2015. Johannes Kepler University Linz. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2017/JointPaper_LeandroMedina_158countries.pdf
Nchor, D., & Adamec, V. (2015). Unofficial economy estimation by the MIMIC model: the case of Kenya, Namibia, Ghana and Nigeria. ACTA. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563062043
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. (2002). Measuring the non-observed economy. OECD Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/std/na/1963116.pdf
Pocius, A. (2015). Šešėlinės ekonomikos ir neoficialaus užimtumo būklės bei tendencijų įvertinimas Lietuvoje [Evaluation of the shadow economy and informal employment trends in Lithuania]. Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 54(1), 18-32.
Putniņš, T. J., & Sauka, A. (2014). Shadow economy index for the Baltic countries 2009-2013. SSE Riga. Retrieved from https://www.sseriga.edu/en/centres/csb/shadow-economy-index-for-baltics/
Putninš, T. J., & Sauka, A. (2015). Measuring the shadow economy using company managers. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43, 471-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.04.001
Remeikienė, R., Gasparėnienė, L., & Schneider, F. G. (2018). The definition of digital shadow economy. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 696-717. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1266530
Rokicka, M., & Ruzik, A. (2010). The gender pay gap in informal employment in Poland. CERGEEI and the Global Development Network. Retrieved from https://www.cerge.cuni.cz/pdf/gdn/rrc/RRCIX_68_paper_01.pdf
Schneider, F. (2007). Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: new estimates for 145 countries. Economics E-Journal. Retrieved from https://www.economicsejournal.org/economics/journalar-ticles/2007-9/version_1
Schneider, F. (2017). Implausible large differences in the sizes of the underground economies highly developed European countries? A comparison of different estimation. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6522. Retrieved from https://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/2017/Es-tShadEc_OECDCountries.pdf
Schneider, F., & Enste, D. (2000). Shadow economies: size, causes, and consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 38, 77-114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77
Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2013). Estimating the size of the shadow economy: methods, problems and open questions. CESIFO. Retrieved from https://www.economics.jku.at/papers/2013/wp1320.pdf
Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2016). Estimating the size of the shadow economy: methods, problems and open questions. The Institute for the Study of Labor. Retrieved from https://ftp.iza.org/dp9820.pdf
Schneider, F., Raczkowski, K., & Mróz, B. (2015). Shadow economy and tax evasion in the EU. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 18(1), 34-51. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-09-2014-0027
Schneider, F., & Williams, C. (2016). The shadow economy. The Institute of Economics Affairs. Retrieved from https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IEA%20Shadow%20Economy%20web%20rev%207.6.13.pdf
Sookram, S., Watson, P. K., & Schneider, F. (2009). Characteristics of households in the informal sector of an emerging economy. Applied Economics, 41, 3545-3559. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701493733
Tansel, A. (2001). Wage earners, self-employed and gender in the informal sector in Turkey. The Economic Research Forum. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.263275
Trebicka, B. (2014). Mimic model: a tool to estimate the shadow economy. Mediterranean Center of Social and Educational Research. https://doi.org/10.5901/ajis.2014.v3n6p295
Tregidga, H. (2017). Speaking truth to power: analysing shadow reporting as a form of shadow accounting. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 30(3), 510-533. https://doi.org/10.1108/AAAJ-01-2015-1942
Wang, D. H., Lin, J., & Hu, T. H. (2006). A MIMIC approach to modelling the underground economy in Taiwan. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Application, 371(2), 536-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.03.060
Williams, C. C. (2009). Rationales for outsourcing domestic services to off-the-books workers. Journal of Economic Studies, 36(4), 343-354. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580910973565
Williams, C. C. (2010). Out of the shadows: explaining the undeclared economy in Baltic countries. Journal of Baltic Studies, 41(1), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/01629770903525282
Williams, C. C., Bejakovic, P., Mikulic, D., Franic, J., Kedir, A., & Horodnic, I. A. (2017). An evaluation of the scale of undeclared work in the European Union and its structural determinants: estimates using the Labour Input Method. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Williams, C. C., & Horodnic, I. A. (2016). Beyond the marginalization thesis: evaluating the participation of the formally employed in the shadow economy in the European Union. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(3), 400-417. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-06-2014-0105
Williams, C. C., & Nadin, S. (2012). Tackling entrepreneurship in the informal economy: evaluating the policy options. Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, 1(2), 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1108/20452101211261408
Williams, C. C., & Nadin, S. (2013). Harnessing the hidden enterprise culture. Supporting the formalization of off-the-books business start-ups. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 20(2), 434-447. https://doi.org/10.1108/14626001311326815
Williams, C. C., Round, J., & Rodgers, P. (2007). Beyond the formal/informal economy binary hierarchy. International Journal of Social Economics, 34(6), 402-414. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290710751812
Winkelried, D. (2005). Income distribution and the size of the informal sector. The Robinson Rojas Archive. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.777144