The road to the economics of Brexit: a new direction in economic research
Abstract
Brexit became an important subject not only for academics but also for international institutions, research centers and consultancy companies, think tanks and independent experts. The aim of this article is to: (1) provide a general approach of the literature; (2) see how the effects of Brexit are explained in such short-term approach and how important are the economic issues in the debates; (3) identify directions for future research, arguing that a new field of study emerged. The estimation of economic impact of Brexit has generated a reach literature in a short period, which identifies the main issues, rather than providing strong results and conclusions. In order to fill this gap, our paper provide a systematic review of the most important contributions and group them in four research directions: overall economic implications of Brexit; Brexit and trade; migration and labour market; financial issues and Brexit.
Keyword : economics of Brexit, economic research, GDP, trade, migration and labour market, financial issues
How to Cite
Mărginean, S. C., Orăștean, R., & Sava, R. (2020). The road to the economics of Brexit: a new direction in economic research. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(6), 1665-1682. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.13505
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Belke, A., & Gros, D. (2017). The economic impact of Brexit: Evidence from modelling free trade agreements. Atlantic Economic Journal, 45, 317–331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-017-9553-7
Bootle, R., Jessop, J., Lyons, G., & Minford, P. (2018). Alternative Brexit economic analysis. https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Alternative-Brexit-Economic-Analysis-Final-2-Mar-18.pdf
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Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., & Kohl, T. (2017). Consequences of Brexit and options for a “Global Britain” (CESifo Working Paper 6648). CESifo. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12343
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http://voxeu.org/article/looking-back-ex-ante-estimates-costs-brexit
Campos, N. (2019). B for Brexit: A survey of the economics academic literature (IZA Discussion Paper 12134). http://ftp.iza.org/dp12134.pdf
Campos, N., & Coricelli, F. (2015). Some unpleasant Brexit econometrics.
https://voxeu.org/article/some-unpleasant-brexit-econometrics
Campos, N., & Coricelli, F. (Eds.). (2017). The economics of UK-EU relations. From the Treaty of Rome to the vote for Brexit. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55495-2
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Corsetti, G., & Müller, G. (2016). The pound and the macroeconomic effects of Brexit.
https://voxeu.org/article/pound-and-macroeconomic-effects-brexit
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Danielsson, J., Macrae, R., & Zigrand, J.-P. (2016). On the financial market consequences of Brexit.
https://voxeu.org/article/financial-market-consequences-brexit
Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards. Centre for Economic Performance. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66144/1/__lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_LSE%20BrexitVote%20blog_brexit02.pdf
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Ebell, M., & Warren, J. (2016). The long-term economic impact of leaving the EU (National Institute Economic Review 236). National Institute of Economic and Social Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/002795011623600115
Economist. (2018). The economics of Brexit. How bad could it get? The Economist. https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/03/15/how-bad-could-it-get
Emmerson, C., Johnson, P., Mitchell, I., & Phillips, D. (2016). Brexit and the UK’s public finances (IFS Report 116). Institute of Fiscal Studies, London.
European Parliament. (2017). An assessment of the economic impact of Brexit on the EU27. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
Freedman, J. (2017). Tax and Brexit. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx020
Gerlach, S., & Giamberardino, E. D. (2016). The Brexit referendum and sterling.
https://voxeu.org/article/brexit-referendum-and-sterling
Hantzsche, A., Kara, A., & Young, G. (2018). The economic effects of the Government’s proposed Brexit deal. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Report%20Brexit%20-%202018-11-26.pdf
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HM Treasury. (2016b). HM Treasury analysis: The long economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (Cm 9250). HM Government, London.
International Monetary Fund [IMF]. (2016). United Kingdom – 2016 Article IV Consultation Concluding Statement of the Mission. http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/52/mcs051316
Jackson, K., & Shepotylo, O. (2018). Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling, 73(C), 317–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010
Jackson, P. (2016). Brexit – what happens to banking. https://voxeu.org/article/brexit-what-happens-banking
James, S., & Quaglia, L. (2019). Brexit, the City and the contingent power of finance. New Political Economy, 24, 258–271. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2018.1484717
Kahn, R., & Tananbaum, S. A. (2016). Brexit at two months: A slow burn in European Integration. Global Economics Monthly. Council on Foreign Relations. https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2016/08/GEM%20August%202016.pdf
Kierzenkowski, R., Pain, N., Rusticelli, E., & Zwart, S. (2016). The economic consequences of Brexit: A taxing decision (OECD Economic Policy Paper 16). OECD.
KPMG. (2017). Brexit: The impact on sectors. KPMG Economics Insights. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/03/brexit-the-sector-impact.pdf
Martill, B., & Staiger, U. (2018). Brexit and beyond. Rethinking the futures of Europe. UCL Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt20krxf8
Minford, P. (2015). Evaluating European trading arrangements (Cardiff Economics Working Paper E2015/17). Cardiff Business School.
Minford, P. (2017). A budget for Brexit. Economic report. https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wpcontent/uploads/2017/11/EFT-Budget-for-Brexit-14.11.17.pdf
Minford, P. (2018). A budget for Brexit update. https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/A-Budget-for-Brexit-Update-11-Mar-18.pdf
Minford, P., Gupta, S., Le, V. P. M., Mahambare, V., & Xu, Y. (2016). Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2 ed.). Institute of Economic Affairs, London. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785360336
Nabarro, B., & Schultz, C. (2019). UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios. The IFS Green Budget: October 2019. Institute for Fiscal Studies. https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/GB2019-Chapter-3-UKeconomic-outlook-in-four-Brexit-scenarios.pdf
Obstfeld, M. (2016). The initial economic impact of Brexit: An update to early December 2016. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 359–366. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2016.0030
Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR]. (2018). Brexit and the OBR’s forecasts (OBR Discussion Paper 3). Office for Budget Responsibility.
Ottaviano, G. I. P., Pessoa, J. P., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2014). Brexit or Fixit? The trade and welfare effects of leaving the European Union (CEP Policy Analysis, CEPPA016). London School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance, London.
Pain, N., & Young, G. (2004). The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU. Economic Modelling, 21, 37–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00068-8
Petrongolo, B. (2016). Brexit and the UK labour market. In R. Baldwin (Ed.), Brexit beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economics. CEPR.
Portes, J., & Forte, G. (2017). The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33, S31–S44. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx008
Pricewaterhouse Coopers [PwC]. (2016). Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK economy. https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/assets/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-uk-economy.pdf
Samitasa, A., Polyzosb, S., & Siriopoulosa, C. (2018.) Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation. Economic Modelling, 69, 181–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.09.019
Sampson, T. (2017). Brexit: The economics of international disintegration. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 163–184. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.4.163
Simionescu, M., Bilan, Y., Smrcka, L., & Vincurova, Z. (2017a). The effects of European economic integration and the impact of Brexit on the UK immigrants from the CEE countries. E & M Ekonomie a Management, 20, 29–47. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-1-003
Simionescu, M., Strielkowski, W., & Kalyugina, S. (2017b). The impact of Brexit on labour migration and labour markets in the United Kingdom and the EU. Terra Economicus, 15, 148–156. https://doi.org/10.18522/2073-6606-2017-15-1-148-156
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