Military and demographic inter-linkages in the context of the Lithuanian sustainability
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating military and demographic inter-linkages in the context of the Lithuanian sustainability. The investigation combines three important economic aspects such as demographic, military and sustainable development. The authors have revealed that demographic trends should be seen as a necessary conditions for ensuring the functioning of the military sector contributes to public security and sustainable development in general. Correlation and stepwise regression analysis, also Monte Carlo forecasting method have been applied for this purpose. Research results have revealed statistically significant interrelationship between military personnel as a share of total labour force and population growth rate, population median age, total fertility rate as well as birth rate. Moreover, Monte Carlo forecasting method allowed revealing for the next 10 years a steady slight increase in armed forces personnel, stable population growth rates, a rapid aging process and a slight decline of total fertility rate. Military and demographic estimations and future projections allow government to incorporate information into planning and sustainable development policy. The insights from this research may contribute to implementing the goals of sustainable development related to eradication of poverty, inequality, social exclusion, improvement in education, well-being and employment and tackling climate change.
Keyword : military, demographic, sustainable development, Lithuania, trends
How to Cite
Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, I., Dudzevičiūtė, G., & Maknickienė, N. (2020). Military and demographic inter-linkages in the context of the Lithuanian sustainability. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(6), 1508-1524. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.13444
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Prokurat, S., & Fabisiak, J. (2018). Current demographic trends induced by changing fertility patterns in Europe and the United States. Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne. https://doi.org/10.26485/SPE/2018/106/18
Saba, C. S., & Ngepah, N. (2019). A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth in Africa. Quality & Quantity, 53, 2885–2915. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00905-6
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Vest, B. M., Homish, D. L., Fillo, J., & Homish, G. G. (2018). Military status and alcohol problems: Former soldiers may be at greater risk. Addictive Behaviors, 84, 139–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.04.011
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Yang, A. J. F., Trumbull, W. N., Yang, C. W., & Huang, B.-N. (2011). On the relationship between military expenditure, threat, and economic growth: a nonlinear approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 22(4), 449–457. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2010.497723
Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2), 129–139. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690302919
Zhang, Y., Wang, R., & Yao, D. (2017). Does defence expenditure have a spillover effect on income inequality? A cross-regional analysis in China. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 731–749. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245812
Anwar, M. A., Rafique, Z., & Joiya, S. A. (2012). Defense spending-economic growth nexus: A case study of Pakistan. Pakistan Economicand Social Review, 50(2), 163–182.
Arltová, M., Smrčka, L., Vrabcová, J., & Schönfeld, J. (2016). The ageing of the population in developed countries – the economic consequences in the Czech Republic. Economics and Sociology, 9(2), 197–219. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2016/9-2/14
Baumgärtner, S., & Quaas, M. (2010). What is sustainability economics? Ecological Economics, 69, 445–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.019
Becker, W. S. (2011). The value of sustainability to the military: preventing wars is as important as winning them, and far less costly. https://thinkprogress.org/the-value-of-sustainability-to-the-military-preventing-wars-is-as-important-as-winning-them-and-far-25252f33db30/
Breland, J. Y., Donalson, R., Nevedal, A., Dinh, J. V., & Maguen, S. (2017). Military experience can influence women’s eating habits. Appetite, 118, 161–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2017.08.009
Chou, H.-W., Tzeng, W.-C., Chou, Y.-C., Yeh, H.-W., Chang, H.-A., Kao, Y.-C., Huang, S.-Y., Yeh, C.-B., Chiang, W.-S., & Tzeng, N.-S. (2016). Stress, sleep and depressive symptoms in active duty military personnel. The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 352(2), 146–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjms.2016.05.013
d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., & Pieroni, L. (2018). Military expenditure, endogeneity and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5), 509–524. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1422314
Danek, T. (2013). Analysis of relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. The Business and Management Review, 3(3), 51–57.
Dimitraki, O., & Win, S. (2020). Military expenditure economic growth nexus in Jordan: An application of ARDL Bound test analysis in the presence of breaks. Defence and Peace Economics. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1730113
Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791
Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2015). Military expenditure, economic growth and heterogeneity. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848575
Eurostat. (2019). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
Foster, S. N., Hansen, S. L., Capener, D. C., Matsangas, P., & Mysliwiec, V. (2017). Gender differences in sleep disorders in the US military. Sleep Health, 3, 336–341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sleh.2017.07.015
Guo, D., Sun, L., Yu, X., Liu, T., Wu, L., Sun, Z., Zhang, F., Zhou, Y., Shen, M., & Liu, W. (2019). Mindfulness-based stress reduction improves the general health and stress of Chinese military recruits: A pilot study. Psyhiatry Research, 281, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychres.2019.112571
Hartley, K. (2011). The economics of defence policy. A new perspective. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203838778
Kalyoncu, H., & Yucel, F. (2006). An analytical approach on defense expenditure and economic growth: The case of Turkey and Greece. Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336–343. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580610706564
Karadam, D. Y., Yildirim, J., & Nadir, Ö. (2017). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: A non-linear panel data approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 719–730. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
Knell, M. (2005). Demographic fluctuations, sustainability factors and intergenerational fairness – an assessment of Austria’s new pension system. Monetary Policy & the Economy Q, 1, 23–42.
Libicki, M. C., Shatz, H. J., & Taylor, J. E. (2011). Global demographic change and its implication for military power. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg1091af.14?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Lin, F-L., & Wang, M.-C. (2019). Does economic growth cause military expenditure to go up? Using MFVAR model. Quality & Quantity, 53, 3097–3117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00921-6
López Subires, M. D., Alcaide Muñoz, L., Navarro Galera, A., & Rodríguez Bolívar, M. P. (2019). The influence of socio-demographic factors on financial sustainability of public services: a comparative analysis in regional governments and local governments. Sustainability, 11(21), 6008. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216008
Lutz, W., Testa, M. R., & Penn, D. J. (2006). Population density is a key factor in declining human fertility. Population and Environment, 28, 69–81. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-007-0037-6
Malthus, T. R. (1978). An essay on the principle of population, printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul’s Church-Yard, London. http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf
Markowski, S., Chand, S., & Wylie, R. (2017). Economic growth and demand for military expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Asia region. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(4), 473–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1274059
MatLab. (2019). https://ch.mathworks.com/help/econ/vec-model-monte-carlo-forecasts.html
Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, I., Dudzevičiūtė, G., Maknickienė, N., & Vasilis Vasiliauskas, A. (2020). The relation between aging of population and sustainable development of EU countries. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(3), 2026–2042. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.3
NATO. (2019). Defence expenditure of NATO countries. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_164482.htm
Phiri, A. (2017). Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa? Defence and Peace Economics, 30(4), 474–487. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1361272
Prokurat, S., & Fabisiak, J. (2018). Current demographic trends induced by changing fertility patterns in Europe and the United States. Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne. https://doi.org/10.26485/SPE/2018/106/18
Saba, C. S., & Ngepah, N. (2019). A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth in Africa. Quality & Quantity, 53, 2885–2915. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00905-6
Salvati, L., Carlucci, M., Serra, P., & Zambon, I. (2019). Demographic transitions and socioeconomic development in Italy, 1862–2009: A brief overview. Sustainability, 11(1), 242. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010242
Shahbaz, M., Afza, T., & Shabbir, M. S. (2013). Does defence spending impede economic growth? Cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(2), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723159
Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), 959–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874
United Nations. (2019). World Population Prospects. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
United Nations. (2017). Ageing, older persons and the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/poverty-reduction/ageing--older-persons-and-the-2030-agenda-for-sustainable-develo.html
Utrero-Gonzalez, N., Hromcova, J., & Callado-Muńoz, F. J. (2019). Defence spending, institutional environment and economic growth: Case of NATO. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(5), 525–548. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1400292
Vasyltsiv, T., & Tesliuk, R. (2020). Demographic dimention of sustainable development of Ukraine. Ekonomika ta derzhava, 4, 33–38. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6806.2020.4.33
Vest, B. M., Homish, D. L., Fillo, J., & Homish, G. G. (2018). Military status and alcohol problems: Former soldiers may be at greater risk. Addictive Behaviors, 84, 139–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.04.011
World Bank. (2016). Global monitoring report 2015/2016: Development goals in an era of demographic change. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/503001444058224597/Global-Monitoring-Report-2015.pdf
World Bank. (2019). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS?locations=LT&most_recent_year_desc=false
Yang, A. J. F., Trumbull, W. N., Yang, C. W., & Huang, B.-N. (2011). On the relationship between military expenditure, threat, and economic growth: a nonlinear approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 22(4), 449–457. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2010.497723
Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2), 129–139. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690302919
Zhang, Y., Wang, R., & Yao, D. (2017). Does defence expenditure have a spillover effect on income inequality? A cross-regional analysis in China. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 731–749. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245812